Friday, August 4, 2017

USA fragile state







4 August 2017

USA fragile-state development

By: Karsten Riise

There are strong measurable signs of social fragility and state-insecurity inside the USA.


The pro-military faction in the USA is undisturbed by social-reality still performing its old theatre:

http://csbaonline.org/reports/the-trump-administrations-fy-2018-defense-budget-in-context

You wonder what these people had really imagined to make their dreams come true.

This US élite is so disconnected from long-time broader developments in the US society.
(and often, it may sometimes seem, from the world at large).

An élite increasingly disconnected from social reality can seriously undermine the state – it is one of the parameters leading to a “Fragile State”:

http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/indicators/c2/

Though the Fragile State description of the C2 “Factionalized Elite” fragility indicator is not in its definition-wording a perfect match to the social fragmentation in the USA, it has already been noted by observers, that the C2 fragility indicators is steeply rising in the USA.

The total “fragile state” indicator had been deceitfully stable for the USA. But since 2006, the USA has experienced a significant deterioration (increase) in all three alarm-indicators for “Cohesion” - C1 “Security Apparatus”, the C2 “Factionalized Elite” indicator, and the C3 “Group Grievances”.

(see attached PDF with detailed USA Fragile State Index developments 2006-2017)
The main reason why the sum-total “Fragile State” indicator has not gone up in the USA, is that two “Social Indicators” S1 “Demographic Pressures”, S2 “Refugees and IDP’s” have been gone down, masking that the C1-3 indicators are going up at an alarming pace. Furthermore, the “Fragile States” index even has one false indication , as it reports that the E2 “Uneven Development” indicator should have improved in the USA. The E2 indicator is definitely incorrect. It is a widely accepted social fact in the USA, that Uneven Development has not improved, but has also seriously deteriorated.

Though not one-to-one exactly the same, a remarkably similar development has occurred in the UK as compared to the USA.

The social fragility developments in especially the USA (but also in the UK) should worry the world.
  • A security study of the USA should be conducted
  • Study social threats to inner social-economic and political stability of the USA



Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor


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